Strategic Foresight
Strategic foresight involves systematically exploring trends and analyzing possible future scenarios to identify emerging opportunities and risks that may impact an organization's long-term success. It is a proactive approach to preparing for the future.
However, there are infinite future possibilities, and it can be difficult to narrow down scenarios that are actually relevant. Therefore and to find apt paths, we have created P.O.W.E.R.N.A.V.I.™gate.
P.O.W.E.R.N.A.V.I.™gate
powernavi has transformed the Storytelling-Based Scenario Approach (SBSA) (see Maffei & Birk, 2025, Chapter 32) – originally developed for the University of St.Gallen (HSG) – into P.O.W.E.R.N.A.V.I.™gate. This new, streamlined version enhances strategic foresight and provides evidence-based decision-making. Designed for both educational institutions and companies, it promotes the diversity of voices more than ever.
The nine focus areas of P.O.W.E.R.N.V.A.V.I.™gate highlight where significant changes may occur:
People & Society
Organization & Leadership
Wants & Stakeholders
Economy & Markets
Regulations & Laws
Nature & Climate
AI & Technology
VUCA & Dynamics
Information & Media
P.O.W.E.R.N.V.A.V.I.™gate takes into account that not all developments follow a linear path; they can be shaped by disruptions, tipping points, or unexpected events. Additionally, changes interact with one another, either amplifying or offsetting their effects.
Why Identifying Trends, Deriving Scenarios, and Strategic Planning Are Vital
In a VUCA world, organizations must act proactively: identify trends early, frame scenarios, and develop flexible plans (foresight planning, contingency planning, and emergency planning). This strategic approach strengthens both individual and organizational resilience, enhances competitiveness, and ensures long-term success.
1. Identifying Trends: Anticipating the Future Early
Trends serve as early indicators of change. By continuously monitoring and analyzing trends, organizations can anticipate shifts in the economy, technology, society, and nature at an early stage. This allows them to mitigate risks, and capitalize on emerging opportunities.
2. Deriving Scenarios: Preparing for Multiple Futures
Based on retrospective and prospective trends, scenarios are developed – hypothetical snapshots in the future that illustrate how developments may impact organizations. These scenarios help leaders and teams prepare strategically for different eventualities.
powernavi supports companies and educational institutions with specialized Scenario Workshops to navigate these challenges and develop future-proof strategies.
3. Planning: Ensuring Readiness
Following scenario analysis, strategic planning takes place. Three key types of planning help mitigate risks and maximize opportunities:
Forward Planning: Medium- and long-term strategies for growth and innovation to adapt to changes and secure competitive advantages. Example: Investing in reskilling programs to address labor market shifts.
Contingency Planning: "What-if" or backup plans to safeguard against events that may jeopardize strategic goals. Example: Establishing alternative supply chains to mitigate geopolitical risks.
Emergency Planning: Crisis response strategies for coping with emergencies to ensure business continuity in exceptional situations. Example: Implementing emergency recovery protocols for cyberattacks or natural disasters.